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The base case is not a plan. Once an “idea” has successfully moved across the various development steps and reached the maturity required to be called a “project”, a new and more subtle act of self-deception usually follows: the base case quietly becomes the plan. On paper, the base case is a useful and internally consistent construct. It allows financial models to converge on an IRR, committees to approve, and investment memos to look reassuringly serious. The question is no

Condition-based maintenance (CBM), and later Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM), are ideas that sound irresistibly rational. Measure the condition, detect degradation, intervene only when needed, increase uptime, extend asset life. Conceptually I like the CBM principle: it is clean, elegant, and in some environments it genuinely works. Where I struggle is with the way it is sold to power plants. CBM was developed by the US Air Force in the ‘50s, and RCM followed in the ‘7

Inventory management is one of those topics too many people want to talk about in power generation. It can keep meetings and committees busy for hours and conveniently justify spending, which is precisely why it quietly destroys value when it is done badly. When a power plant is presented to me as “operationally under control,” the presentation usually comes with H&S statistics (that by now everyone has learned how to mystify), availability figures, heat rate, and a good asso

Power plants and datacenters are facing a time problem: delivery times for gas turbines and large reciprocating engines already stretch well beyond 24 months; after years of collective “hydrogen ready - waiting for hydrogen” mantra,  interest in gas-to-power machines has returned with force. OEMs are announcing production increases (ramp up)  and reopening facilities, to answer to the demand, with the  commercial teams proudly sign what are presented as “contracts of the cent

There is a moment in every power project when someone around the table says: “We should internalize O&M” . With external O&M, the owner buys, at least on paper, experience and a balance sheet that absorbs surprises while still learning or busy elsewhere. At the same time, particularly in renewable applications, external companies can achieve economies of scale by servicing multiple assets. At an early stage, with no operating history, no failure database, a spare parts strate

#project #returns A project becomes bankable long after it becomes interesting. Bankability is about surviving distrust from investors, not impressing them with a PowerPoint. A bankable project assumes that nobody believes you, that many things will go wrong, and it is built accordingly. What I am posting here is largely obvious, yet we all suffer from bias when we evaluate our own projects. The first filter is certainty of revenues. Returns matter only when they are defined,

Everyone loves reciprocating engine power plants on paper. They are sold as modular, flexible, fast to deploy, and tolerant. And, to be fair, they can be all of that. The problem usually starts after commissioning. When the EPC is gone, warranties begin to blur, and the plant is expected to deliver megawatt-hours every single day, without excuses. Operating a reciprocating engine plant is not difficult in theory. It is difficult in practice, because these machines are unforgi

Many people come to me saying: “I have a project.” Most of the time, they don’t. They have an idea. Sometimes a good one, often a bad one. Quite often, it is a once-decent idea that has been made worse by changing macroeconomic conditions. The opposite almost never happens. Calling an idea a project too early is one of the most efficient ways to destroy value. Ideas are easy. They are optimistic by nature. They live in a base case where the sun shines every day, logistics wor

In today's world, energy management is more crucial than ever. As we face challenges like climate change and resource depletion, effective energy project management becomes essential. GVBA has established a strong reputation in this field, showcasing a proven track record of successful projects. This blog post will explore GVBA's approach to energy project management, highlighting key strategies, successful case studies, and the impact of their work. Understanding Energy Proj