Power Hype

Power plants and datacenters are facing a time problem: delivery times for gas turbines and large reciprocating engines already stretch well beyond 24 months; after years of collective “hydrogen ready - waiting for hydrogen” mantra,  interest in gas-to-power machines has returned with force. OEMs are announcing production increases (ramp up)  and reopening facilities, to answer to the demand, with the  commercial teams proudly sign what are presented as “contracts of the century,” accepting that consequences can be dealt with at a later time. In parallel, project teams search for workarounds: second-hand machines, 50 Hz to 60 Hz conversions, assets relocated across continents, and, in some cases, even more imaginative proposals often in competition with the aftermarket. Creativity is a problem when becomes a distraction of time and capital,  adding complexity while being sold as ingenuity and serendipity. 

It is in this environment that ideas such as converting a well-known turbofan aircraft engine (that should remain nameless) for power generation begin to circulate. Whenever such proposals appear, a simple question should be asked first: what problem are we actually trying to solve?

If the problem is long delivery times, then adding technical novelty and R&D risk does not help. It introduces additional uncertainty precisely when certainty is most needed. It solves nothing and complicates everything.

From an engineering standpoint, the issue is straightforward: a turbofan is designed to produce thrust by accelerating a large mass of air, not to deliver mechanical shaft power. There is no free power turbine to tap and no convenient shaft delivering usable output. Turning such a machine into a power-generation unit would require major redesign of the components and  developing a bespoke control system. At that point, nothing is being converted, it is a prototype, not ready for scale production, a prototype would coming with no OEM backing, no clear certification path, no operating history, and no credible route to financing. It would be technically fragile, economically incoherent, and effectively impossible to bank.

Constraints, however, do not disappear because they are ignored or rebranded; they disappear only when they are acknowledged and addressed within reality.

And if a solution sounds bold, unconventional, and fast, it is usually worth asking one last time whether it is actually solving the problem in a scalable way or simply postponing it for someone else.

 the projects that will survive the next cycle will not be the most imaginative ones, but the ones that accept constraints early (do I have the offtaker? the technology? the fuel?), resist the urge to announce prematurely, and focus instead on solutions that can actually be delivered, operated, and financed in the real world.

a bath tub can float and get a person comfortably sitting in it, but won't win a regatta.

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